Pre- Conference Workshop
  A Short course in Automatic Model Selection | 12 April 

Economic time series exhibit evolving stochastic trends and sudden distributional shifts. We use historical UK data from over a century to illustrate trends and breaks, and how they may be handled. The econometric tools are introduced, as well as OxMetrics, the software used for estimation and Monte Carlo experiments.

 We discuss the Theory of Reduction, revealing the steps that lead us to our empirical model, as well as approaches to automatic model selection, and their properties. We discus Autometrics, the machine learning tool that we use for model discovery

We consider several approaches to automatic model selection, and their properties. We introduce Autometrics, the machine learning tool that we use for model discovery.

We describe a computational approach that can be used in a setting that requires the implementation of indicator and step saturation estimators (e.g practical problems such as pandemics, energy crises and financial crises). Monte Carlo and practical examples are used to illustrate its performance.